Arabica is at the heart of specialty coffee, but it’s becoming harder to grow in a warming world. Here’s a short look at what’s changing, and how those shifts travel all the way to our cups.
In North America, most of what we roast and drink is arabica. It comes from the Coffea arabica plant and makes up around 70% of global coffee production. Other species, like robusta and liberica, appear far less often in specialty coffee.
At Holm, arabica is the only species we’ve roasted so far. It is known for its brightness and sweetness which the specialty coffee industry has grown to love, but it's also sensitive. It depends on fairly steady temperatures and predictable seasons, and those are being disrupted by climate change.
Across many coffee producing regions, farmers are already dealing with these shifts. Harvests arrive earlier or later than expected. Cherries ripen unevenly on the same branch. Pests and plant diseases appear in places that rarely saw them before. Some years bring extended heatwaves; others bring heavy rains. Each season looks a little different, and researchers suggest this pattern will continue, making land that currently works for arabica harder to rely on.
Climate change, along with supply-chain disruptions and economic pressures such as tariffs, has contributed to higher costs throughout the industry. Coffee prices for Canadian consumers rose by about 28% in 2025 (Statistics Canada), and none of these pressures seem likely to ease soon. Researchers also estimate that roughly 50% of today’s coffee-growing land could become unsuitable for arabica by 2050.
So how is this relevant for us as roasters — and for you as coffee drinkers?
Mostly, it shows up as uncertainty. In the past, for the industry as a whole, it was easier to plan ahead and reserve coffees in advance. That predictability is no longer guaranteed. Importers and roasters can’t always know whether a particular coffee will be available next year, because conditions can change at the farm level. That has an impact on our costs, on retail prices, and on what we’re able to roast and offer consistently. This is a challenge faced by specialty roasters and “big coffee” alike.
It’s challenging, but there is adaptation happening. In Brazil, extreme heat has pushed some producers back toward agroforestry and shade-grown systems. Elsewhere, farmers are moving plantings slightly uphill into cooler areas, or testing different varieties, irrigation, and canopy cover. Small farmers, working smaller plots, are often the ones most able to make these adjustments when they have the right support.
The future of arabica isn’t fixed. It rests on how growers, buyers, and roasters adapt — and on our readiness to adjust as the landscape changes. We’ll keep evolving our sourcing alongside the people who grow the coffee we roast.
